Tråden om politikk, religion og makroøkonomi
- Trådstarter JanSkrotnes
- Opprettet
- Status
Jon Henrik
Grunnlegger
1:50 inn i video "What is the Great Reset? | Davos Agenda 2021"
"....We need enormous trust between the private sector and the public sector for this to actually work...."
Ja selvfølgelig, men...
"Of course, the social impact of the covid pandemic is far from over and in fact, now that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine is on the ropes, it appears that Europe (for various political and monetary reasons) may be relapsing and get yet another round of lockdowns soon. But at least as far as markets are concerned, Covid is officially yesterday's news and is no longer the biggest bogeyman on Wall Street."
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Det vi ser på verdensmarkedet er privat sektoren som tar avstand fra offentligsektoren.
Grunnen er enkelt: tilliten er brutt og investørene er ikke mer villige til å følge det politiske narrativet fra statene.
Og Ray Dalio (co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, since 1985. He founded Bridgewater in 1975 in New York) forklarer godt hvorfor.
"Why in the World Would You Own Bonds When…"
...The economics of investing in bonds (and most financial assets) has become stupid.
Think about it. The purpose of investing is to have money in a storehold of wealth that you can convert into buying power at a later date. When one invests one gives a lump-sum payment for payments in the future.
Let’s look at what that deal now looks like. If I give $100 today how many years do I have to wait to get my $100 back and then start collecting the reward on top of what I gave?
In US, European, Japanese, and Chinese bonds an investor has to wait roughly 42 years, 450 years, 150 years, and 25 years[1] respectively to get one’s money back and then one gets low or nil nominal returns.
However, because you are trying to store buying power you have to take into consideration inflation. In the US you have to wait over 500 years, and you will never get your buying power back in Europe or Japan.
In fact, if you buy bonds in these countries now you will be guaranteed to have a lot less buying power in the future. Rather than get paid less than inflation why not instead buy stuff—any stuff—that will equal inflation or better?
We see a lot of investments that we expect to do significantly better than inflation. "
"Based both on how things have worked historically and what is happening now, I am confident that tax changes will also play an important role in driving capital flows to different investment assets and different locations, and those movements will influence market movements. If history and logic are to be a guide, policy makers who are short of money will raise taxes and won’t like these capital movements out of debt assets and into other storehold of wealth assets and other tax domains so they could very well impose prohibitions against capital movements to other assets (e.g., gold, Bitcoin, etc.) and other locations. These tax changes could be more shocking than expected."
Why in the World Would You Own Bonds When…
…Bond markets offer ridiculously low yields. Real yields of reserve currency sovereign bonds are negative and the lowest ever.
www.linkedin.com
Vi kaller det en "turning point".
Som Dalio sier, vil statene gå på jakt etter pengene som flytter seg fra det offentlige til det private og egentlig fra statsogligasjonene til varer/eiendeler.
Mistillit skal bare vokse, pengene skal gjemme seg enda mer og kortslottet skal falle.
Romerriket falt på en lignende måte.
Det historie viser er at når kommer enden, vinner bestandig det "Frie Markedet".
Det blir ingen Great Reset som W.E.F har tenkt seg.
En til som trekker seg ut fra statsobligasjonene og gambler mot de.
"Onetime bond king Bill Gross has been busy in retirement, shorting Treasury bonds, playing chicken with day traders on Reddit and even making a bundle on energy prices.
The Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder, who runs money for his charitable foundation, shared some of his trades in an interview Tuesday on Bloomberg Television.
Gross said he bet against the 10-year Treasury through the futures market and remains short, anticipating a combination of rising commodity prices, a weaker dollar and stimulus-driven demand will spark inflation."
economictimes.indiatimes.com
"Onetime bond king Bill Gross has been busy in retirement, shorting Treasury bonds, playing chicken with day traders on Reddit and even making a bundle on energy prices.
The Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder, who runs money for his charitable foundation, shared some of his trades in an interview Tuesday on Bloomberg Television.
Gross said he bet against the 10-year Treasury through the futures market and remains short, anticipating a combination of rising commodity prices, a weaker dollar and stimulus-driven demand will spark inflation."
Bill Gross surprises with short bets on Treasuries, GameStop
Treasuries are familiar territory for Bill Gross, 76, who once managed the worlds biggest bond fund.
Jeg har aldri tatt de konspirasjonsteoriene om at vi styres av romvesner alvorlig selvfølgelig.
Men hvis Men in black filmene skulle trenge statister........
Men hvis Men in black filmene skulle trenge statister........
Virkeligheten er at det er gamle padder&co som gir anbefalinger...
Og ikke bare i Norge...
Det er en stor familie.
Han på høyre er også en gammel kjendis som gikk vekk og tilbake til Saturn i 2017.
Lange neser som finner seg overalt.
OCTOBER 14, 2016
"Some believe Hanjin's bankruptcy signals that quantitative easing has no more power, and a global recession is on the horizon."
“Hardly a surprise,” says Lim Say Boon, chief investment officers at DBS Wealth Management in Singapore. “This is a crisis that has been waiting to happen. In shipping, as in many sectors, capacity has been steadily growing due to overly rosy forecasting and the availability of credit at historically low interest rates. Despite massive overcapacity, the biggest container ships that have ever sailed are still being built.”
According to Lim, “Many think the Hanjin crisis a sign that quantitative easing in all its forms has run out of steam and absent this artificial stimulus to GDP growth—be it in China, Korea or the US—we will soon face another recession.”
www.gfmag.com
"The first coronavirus COVID-19 case was discovered in China in December 2019 and didn’t become a major issue in the United States until February 2020. But on October 7, 2019 we reported that Wall Street banks had announced a staggering 68,000 job cuts as the Fed pumped $310 billion more in unprecedented loans to Wall Street. That doesn’t sound like there was “nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” the narrative that Powell is pushing.
On October 9 we reported that Powell had appeared at a speaking event in Denver at the National Association of Business Economists and acknowledged that a larger, long-term bailout of Wall Street was on its way. That also doesn’t sound like everything was fine in the financial world before the coronavirus hit.
On January 27, 2020, again before any reported death from coronavirus in the U.S., we reported that Fed Repos Have Plowed $6.6 Trillion to Wall Street in Four Months; That’s 34% of Its Feeding Tube During Epic Financial Crash. Again, that doesn’t sound like there was nothing fundamentally wrong before the coronavirus hit.
"The new, 34-year old Democratic Senator from Georgia, Jon Ossoff, let a very big cat out of the bag at yesterday’s Senate Banking hearing. For at least a year, from September 17, 2019 through at least September 30, 2020, the New York Fed, acting as an agent for the Federal Reserve, doled out a cumulative $9 trillion or more in repo loans. The Fed would say only that the money was going to some of its 24 Primary Dealers on Wall Street, without naming any specific bank receiving the money. In June of 2020, the New York Fed abruptly stopped reporting the dollar amounts it was pumping out each day.
The emergency repo loans by the Fed began months before there was any case of COVID-19 reported anywhere in the world."
"Some believe Hanjin's bankruptcy signals that quantitative easing has no more power, and a global recession is on the horizon."
“Hardly a surprise,” says Lim Say Boon, chief investment officers at DBS Wealth Management in Singapore. “This is a crisis that has been waiting to happen. In shipping, as in many sectors, capacity has been steadily growing due to overly rosy forecasting and the availability of credit at historically low interest rates. Despite massive overcapacity, the biggest container ships that have ever sailed are still being built.”
According to Lim, “Many think the Hanjin crisis a sign that quantitative easing in all its forms has run out of steam and absent this artificial stimulus to GDP growth—be it in China, Korea or the US—we will soon face another recession.”
Hanjin: Coal Mine Canary? - Global Finance Magazine
Some believe Hanjin's bankruptcy signals that quantitative easing has no more power, and a global recession is on the horizon.
www.gfmag.com
"The first coronavirus COVID-19 case was discovered in China in December 2019 and didn’t become a major issue in the United States until February 2020. But on October 7, 2019 we reported that Wall Street banks had announced a staggering 68,000 job cuts as the Fed pumped $310 billion more in unprecedented loans to Wall Street. That doesn’t sound like there was “nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” the narrative that Powell is pushing.
On October 9 we reported that Powell had appeared at a speaking event in Denver at the National Association of Business Economists and acknowledged that a larger, long-term bailout of Wall Street was on its way. That also doesn’t sound like everything was fine in the financial world before the coronavirus hit.
On January 27, 2020, again before any reported death from coronavirus in the U.S., we reported that Fed Repos Have Plowed $6.6 Trillion to Wall Street in Four Months; That’s 34% of Its Feeding Tube During Epic Financial Crash. Again, that doesn’t sound like there was nothing fundamentally wrong before the coronavirus hit.
Wall Street Had Cut 68,000 Jobs and Received Trillions in Emergency Loans Prior to COVID-19 Anywhere in the World
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 1, 2020 ~ On March 26 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell went on the Today show to deliver one message: “There
wallstreetonparade.com
"The new, 34-year old Democratic Senator from Georgia, Jon Ossoff, let a very big cat out of the bag at yesterday’s Senate Banking hearing. For at least a year, from September 17, 2019 through at least September 30, 2020, the New York Fed, acting as an agent for the Federal Reserve, doled out a cumulative $9 trillion or more in repo loans. The Fed would say only that the money was going to some of its 24 Primary Dealers on Wall Street, without naming any specific bank receiving the money. In June of 2020, the New York Fed abruptly stopped reporting the dollar amounts it was pumping out each day.
The emergency repo loans by the Fed began months before there was any case of COVID-19 reported anywhere in the world."
Senator Ossoff Drops a Bombshell: “The 12 or 13 Largest Banks” Got the Trillions from the Fed’s Repo Loans Last Year
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: March 3, 2021 ~ The new, 34-year old Democratic Senator from Georgia, Jon Ossoff, let a very big cat out of the bag at
wallstreetonparade.com
Den er for deg @DrDoppler
Her er plassen for "konspirasjonerteorier og alternative virkeligheter" som du sier.
Jeg håper at du tåler å se en del "egoister" i Londons gatene.
Her er plassen for "konspirasjonerteorier og alternative virkeligheter" som du sier.
Jeg håper at du tåler å se en del "egoister" i Londons gatene.
Raising Taxes Will Never Be Enough – Federal Revenues Explained
Taps Coogan – March 24th, 2021
"The ink isn’t dry on the latest $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and we are now launching into discussions on a multi-trillion dollar ‘infrastructure’ stimulus bill. The price tag for that infrastructure bill looks like it might be as high as $4 trillion.
Some people are suggesting that we can pay for that infrastructure bill, and other deficit spending, by simply raising taxes on companies and ‘rich people.’ We can’t. It’s not even close.
Federal Revenues
In fiscal year 2019, when the economy was strong, unemployment was at a 50 year low, and real wages were surging, the federal government collected a near record $3.464 trillion of taxes. That revenue came from four major sources: income taxes ($1.718 trillion), payroll taxes ($1.243 trillion), corporate taxes ($230 billion), and $273 billion from a combination of tariffs, excise taxes, estate taxes, interest on Federal Reserve deposits, and other miscellaneous sources.
The tax hike proposals that have recently been floated include raising the top income tax rate from 37% to just under 40%, raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 25% (or 28%), and taxing long term capital gains at 40% instead of 23% on high income earners (or people selling their homes or small businesses).
How much revenue is that going to actually raise?
To make the math simple, lets assume that raising taxes doesn’t reduce growth and doesn’t lead to any tax avoidance strategies, or market selloffs that negatively effect taxable gains.
Here are the back-of-the-envelope numbers:
Corporate Taxes: All things being equal, raising corporate taxes from 21% to 25% in 2019 would have raised about $44 billion. It would also bring the US corporate rate above the global average, Raising the rate to 28% would raise about $77 billion and give the US the highest corporate rate in the developed world when combined with state taxes.
Top 1% Taxes: The top 1% pay about 37% of income taxes. If we assume that their income is entirely from earned wages, raising the marginal tax rate on income over $422,000 (the demarcation of the Top 1%) from 37% to 40% would raise roughly $35 billion (figures in the calculation taken from here).
If we assume that 100% of the Top 1%’s income is being taxed as long term capital gains at 23% and you taxed all income above $422,000 at 40% instead, it would raise roughly $195 billion a year, assuming no tax avoidance, economic impact, or market impacts.
In total, the corporate and ‘rich people’ taxes on the table are likely to raise somewhere between $79 billion and $272 billion a year assuming no tax avoidance, economic impact, or market impact. The difference between those two numbers depends on how much personal income you assume is currently from long term capital gains versus short term gains & salaries and whether the corporate rate is raised to 25% or 28%. The real number is probably something like $175 billion in present day revenue, which would need to be indexed for growth and inflation in future years.
Reality Check
The CBO estimates that the federal deficit for fiscal year 2021 will be $2.3 trillion excluding the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and any infrastructure spending or other stimulus that follows this year. So, the national debt is likely to expand by at least $4.2 trillion this year. That’s before starting into infrastructure spending. The national debt grew by $4.23 trillion in fiscal year 2020. The combined increase in the national debt in 2020 and 2021 is likely to be $8.4 trillion before infrastructure.
The interest expense on $8.4 trillion at today’s rates (~1.5% for the 10-year) is about $126 billion a year. In other words, the proposed tax increases will barely cover the interest expense on the debt that we’re likely to add in FY 2020 and 2021. Again, that’s before getting into infrastructure spending and assuming that interest rates don’t rise further, which they are busy doing.
There is a popular notion that by just enacting a few taxes on ‘greedy’ corporations and ‘rich people’ we are going to be able to pay for the absolutely reckless, partisan, run-away deficit spending coming out of Washington. That is a bald-faced lie. Financing what is likely going to be an increase in debt equivalent to nearly 50% of GDP in just two years is going to completely transform the nation. That spending will extract its pound of flesh from everyone, either through taxes or inflation."
"One of the three biggest challenges on the priority list for the World Economic Forum is the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, yet neither Klaus Schwab nor his father Eugen lived up to those same principles when they were in business. Quite the opposite."
"In the case of the Schwabs, the evidence doesn’t point at simply poor business practices or some sort of misunderstanding. The story of the Schwab family instead reveals a habit of working with genocidal dictators for the base motives of profit and power. The Nazis and the South African apartheid regime are two of the worst examples of leadership in modern politics, yet the Schwabs obviously couldn’t or wouldn’t see that at the time."
unlimitedhangout.com
"In the case of the Schwabs, the evidence doesn’t point at simply poor business practices or some sort of misunderstanding. The story of the Schwab family instead reveals a habit of working with genocidal dictators for the base motives of profit and power. The Nazis and the South African apartheid regime are two of the worst examples of leadership in modern politics, yet the Schwabs obviously couldn’t or wouldn’t see that at the time."
Schwab Family Values
Is the real Klaus Schwab a kindly old uncle figure wishing to do good for humanity, or is he really the son of a Nazi collaborator who used slave labour and aided Nazi efforts to obtain the first atomic bomb?
unlimitedhangout.com
Stakkars Arne Hjeltenes, han er lei seg for at "staten og sosialistene" ikke vil la folk bli sjuke og dø for at han skal beholde bånnlinja.
https://www.nrk.no/ytring/lett-a-la-andre-ta-dugnaden-1.15433478
Kanskje han ikke skulle ha vært så redd for å betale skatt så hadde det vært litt mer for alle å dele på. Også hadde det sett mindre dumt ut når han gråter for sin syke mor i glasshus.
https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/rekordutbytte-for-arne-hjeltnes/s/12-95-3423818152
Ok , det var litt slemt mot Arne det her, men jeg er bare så lei av all sytinga fra kjendiser, idrettsfolk, næringslivet, musikere, skuespillere, prester, hytteeiere, svenskehandlere osv osv. Eneste som får fripass av meg er helsearbeidere og koronasjuke. Og meg selv da selvfølgelig, jeg må jo få syte over dem som syter!
Sjøl er jeg utrulig heldig og priviligert som har beholdt jobben og helsa det siste året.
https://www.nrk.no/ytring/lett-a-la-andre-ta-dugnaden-1.15433478
Kanskje han ikke skulle ha vært så redd for å betale skatt så hadde det vært litt mer for alle å dele på. Også hadde det sett mindre dumt ut når han gråter for sin syke mor i glasshus.
https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/rekordutbytte-for-arne-hjeltnes/s/12-95-3423818152
Ok , det var litt slemt mot Arne det her, men jeg er bare så lei av all sytinga fra kjendiser, idrettsfolk, næringslivet, musikere, skuespillere, prester, hytteeiere, svenskehandlere osv osv. Eneste som får fripass av meg er helsearbeidere og koronasjuke. Og meg selv da selvfølgelig, jeg må jo få syte over dem som syter!
Sjøl er jeg utrulig heldig og priviligert som har beholdt jobben og helsa det siste året.
Ifølge W.H.O har ikke alle vært så heldige som deg med nedstengingene.
Hva er alternativet? Hva blir konsekvensene for økonomien om dette fortsetter ett år til? Hva om dette fortsetter enda lenger?
England: lockdown
Sverige: ingen
California: lockdown
Florida: ingen
Sånne nedstenginger ble aldri prøvd i menneskehets historie, da...(de endelige) resultatene er ikke kjent, men jeg vil påstå at vi holde på å drepe en mygg med dynamite.
Spørsmålet er hvis disse nedstenginger er mente for selv viruset eller for en "Great Reset"...
Da må du følge opp på innleggene mine som angår hele pre-covid økonomisk situasjon
Visualized: the World’s Deadliest Pandemics by Population Impact
During its heyday, the Black Death wiped out roughly 50% of the world’s population—making it one of the deadliest pandemics to date.
www.visualcapitalist.com
Jada Hammerfjord det er lett å finne tabeller og grafer, men å finne et alternativ som virker bedre enn nedstengning er verre.
Så igjen : Hva er alternativet? Hva blir konsekvensene for økonomien om dette fortsetter ett eller flere år?
Persisering: Jeg er ikke smittevernekspert, men jeg tenker så enkelt at smittsomme sykdomer ikke har mulighet til å spres hvis ikke syke mennesker møter andre. Siden vi ikke vet om vi har blitt syke må vi ha minst mulig kontakt med andre. Når en familie, by, fylke, land osv er uten smitte må vi hindre at smitte kommer tilbake. Det kan gjøres ved nedstengning, karantene eller testing.
Så hvis vi i sommer, når det nesten ikke var smitte i landet, hadde testet eller satt i karantene alle som krøssa grensa, hadde vi ikke hatt smitte nå. Har alle klagene vært med på å endre holdningene til smittevern? Jeg trur det.
En liten kommentar til det at nedstengning ikke har vært prøvd før. Før moderne medisin var vel nedstengning og karantene det eneste vi hadde som virka.
Så igjen : Hva er alternativet? Hva blir konsekvensene for økonomien om dette fortsetter ett eller flere år?
Persisering: Jeg er ikke smittevernekspert, men jeg tenker så enkelt at smittsomme sykdomer ikke har mulighet til å spres hvis ikke syke mennesker møter andre. Siden vi ikke vet om vi har blitt syke må vi ha minst mulig kontakt med andre. Når en familie, by, fylke, land osv er uten smitte må vi hindre at smitte kommer tilbake. Det kan gjøres ved nedstengning, karantene eller testing.
Så hvis vi i sommer, når det nesten ikke var smitte i landet, hadde testet eller satt i karantene alle som krøssa grensa, hadde vi ikke hatt smitte nå. Har alle klagene vært med på å endre holdningene til smittevern? Jeg trur det.
En liten kommentar til det at nedstengning ikke har vært prøvd før. Før moderne medisin var vel nedstengning og karantene det eneste vi hadde som virka.
Redigert:
Verdensøkonomien har ALDRI vært stengt sånn før og det har ALDRI vært noen verdens "enighet" om sånn politikk før.
Det som har vært gjort før -og det siden de eldste tidene- var å isolere de syke mens de friske fortsatt med livet sitt mer eller mindre som før.
Nå må du ikke forveksle vår situasjon med det som skjedde i noen byer når Svartedauden var i full sving: der snakker vi om minst 50% av populasjonen som gikk under med en gang.
Det som må vurderes er de langsiktige konsekvensene av disse nedstenginger.
"Hansen and deBoisblanc say they are seeing mostly young adults die by suicide.They are worried about the stress that isolation and job loss can bring as this quarantine continues."
Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say
"What I have seen recently, I have never seen before. I have never seen so much intentional injury."
abc7news.com
"But it is Japan which seems to have suffered most from a rise in suicides, probably arising from the increased isolation suffered by its people and the resulting loneliness, especially among nation’s women. Prime Minister Suga said, “Women are suffering from isolation more than men and the number of suicides is on a rising trend.” "
"The coronavirus pandemic has disproportionately impacted the world's poor. International lockdowns have put millions of people out of work, many of whom support families abroad. According to Beasley, overseas remittance, the transfer of money from a foreign worker to their family in another country, is expected to drop sharply — "hurting countries such as Haiti, Nepal, and Somalia just a name a couple," he said."
UN food agency chief: World could see famines of "biblical proportions" within months
He said there's "a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself."
www.cbsnews.com
Viruset går ikke vekk med nedstengingene og om det skulle gjør det, hver familie skulle forbli fullstendig innestengt hjem 24/7 for minst 2år (antagelse fra en virolog som snakket om nedstenging i 2019).
Noe som høres "logisk" ut etter dine og mange sine meninger....Men...
Er det mulig? Nei, mente han... Da får man revolusjoner og blod på gatene med en gang.
Da ender det mest sannsynlig i "Mad Max" scenario med guillotiner på gatene.
Menneskehet har overlevd mange og mye verre virus en dette.
Mitt spørsmål er hvorfor er det sånn at plutselig hele verden destruerer seg selv for å "starte på nytt" et "bedre system" ?
Husk hele "Great Reset" og "Build Back Better" politikk nesten alle tutter ut.
Og det, på grunn av et virus som dreper 0.03% av populasjonen.
Min mening er at vi burde bare isolere de syke mens de andre burde forholde seg til å begrense smittefaren i hverdagslivet og slutte med disse nedstenginger, covidpass, krig mot kontanter etc og hele kontrollerende dystopisk greie som utvikler seg.
Og at statene burde slutte å oppføre seg som de har full autoritet over alle som i middelalder.
Verdens befolkning burde ikke bli et eksperiment for internasjonale krefter som ikke er demokratiske utvalgte.
Vi går ikke mot et bedre liv med sånne ekstreme tiltak: tvert imot.
Fra "Love letter to America", Yuri Bezmenov aka "Tomas David Schuman"
Jeg sa det før: det blir INGEN "Great Reset" som World Economic Forum har tenkt seg.
Men konsekvensene skal koste og historie skal dømmes.
- Medlem
- 16. juni 2009
- Innlegg
- 1.130
Covid-19. En oversikt over bevisene - steigan.no
Ei gruppe høyt kvalifiserte britiske leger, forskere, økonomer, psykologer og andre akademiske eksperter har dannet gruppa Health Advisory & Recovery Team – HART. Deres talspersoner er de framtredende forskerne Dr. John Lee og professor Ellen Townsend. De har utgitt rapporten EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...
steigan.no
- Status